Colorado's blowout win over Oregon made it more likely that Arizona will have to beat ASU on Saturday to gain a first-round bye in the Pac-12 Tournament -- and more likely that the Wildcats and Buffs will see each other next Thursday in Las Vegas.
If Colorado beats OSU on Saturday and UA loses, the Wildcats and Buffs would tie for fourth place at 11-7 but Colorado would win the tiebreaker because it has beaten all three of the conference's top teams and UA has beaten none of them.
(Pac-12 Tournament tiebreakers are broken first by head-to-head records and then by record against the top team in the standings on down until the tie is broken).
A No. 5 seed would mean UA's first game would be Wednesday at about 2:30 probably against either WSU or OSU. A win in that game would put Arizona in the quarterfinals on Thursday at about 2:30 against No. 4 Colorado.
If Arizona beats ASU, it would be the No. 4 seed regardless of anything else. That means the Wildcats would play Thursday at 2:30 -- again, probably against Colorado, unless the Buffs lost their first round game.
Here's a look at some possible scenarios for the Pac-12 Tournament seeding:
-- If UA beats ASU, Oregon beats Utah and UCLA beats Washington:
1. Oregon and UCLA would be tied for first at 13-5 but Oregon would be the No. 1 seed because it beat UCLA in their only matchup. UCLA would be 2, and Cal would be tied with UA at 12-6 but the Bears would be the No. 3 seed because of their Feb. 10 win at UA.
-- If UA wins, Oregon beats Utah and Washington beats UCLA:
Oregon wins the conference outright. UCLA is tied with UA and Cal for third but UCLA is the No. 2 seed because it has a 3-1 record against the teams in that tied group (Cal is 2-1, and percentages can win tiebreakers). Cal is No. 3 and UA is No. 4.
-- The home team scenario -- if UA wins, Utah beats Oregon and Washington beats UCLA:
Arizona, Cal, Oregon and UCLA all tie for the conference title at 12-6.
Within that group, the head-to-head records are as follows: Arizona is 0-4, Cal is 4-1, Oregon is 2-2 and UCLA is 2-1.
Cal therefore gets the No. 1 seed, but the rest of the records are ignored (UCLA is not No. 2). You then redo it for the remaining three teams and it looks like this: Oregon 2-0, UCLA 2-1 and UA 0-3.
Therefore it's 1 Cal, 2 Oregon, 3 UCLA and 4 UA.
-- If ASU beats UA but Oregon beats Utah, UCLA beats Washington, and Colorado beats OSU:
It's 1 Oregon, 2 UCLA, 3 Cal, 4 Colorado and 5 UA.
-- If ASU beats UA, Oregon beats Utah, Washington beats UCLA and Colorado beats OSU:
Oregon would be No. 1 as the outright champ. UCLA and Cal would be tied and are 1-1 in head-to-head, so you'd go to how they did against Oregon. Against the Ducks, Cal won twice and UCLA lost once. So it's Cal is 2, UCLA 3 and Colorado 4.
The official Pac-12 news release has the tournament information and tiebreaker procedures on page 6.