ESPN's Jay Bilas held a conference call with reporters today, so I asked him if he'd take Grant Jerrett or Solomon Hill first in Thursday's NBA Draft if Jerrett's upside is to be considered.
"Well, you’re probably taking Jerrett," he said. "If they’re drafting around the same spot or being considered around the same spot, it’s probably going to be late first, early second round, so that’s where I’ve got Hill. I’ve got him in the early second round.
"And if you’re taking Jerrett there, you’re saying, okay, at this spot you’re taking a young guy who has a chance to be really good. ... If he had stayed in school maybe he's a top 10 talent. I don’t know. But he’s got that kind of potential. He could be really good. He’s not really good right now, but he could be really good in the future.
"So you’re saying, hey, should we take this guy now and take a chance to develop him when we know his ceiling is a little bit higher? It doesn’t mean he’s going to reach it, but he has a chance, whereas we have a pretty good idea how good Solomon is and how good he’s going to be."
Bilas said teams are more likely to take a risk on a player such as Jerrett in the second round, where there is little financial risk. Teams only have to offer guaranteed contracts to first-round picks.
"The first round you’re locked in," he said. "That’s going on your books and you’re locked in for a period of time. It’s not the same in the second round."
Among the more well-known mock drafts, Jerrett is projected to go before Hill. ESPN's Chad Ford has Jerrett at No. 39, while NBADraft.net has him 45. Only Draft Express has Hill (56) going before Jerrett (58), while Ford has Hill No. 56 and NBADraft.net does not list Hill at all.
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